The Iowa Post Mortem
The Winners and Losers of Iowa
The 2024 Iowa GOP Caucus is in the books and the night pretty much unfolded as most people expected. Trump romped to a historic result, DeSantis and Haley battled it out for a distant second, and the also rans didn’t produce any shocking returns. Donald Trump pretty much put the nomination to bed last night, as he won 98 out of Iowa’s 99 counties (Haley edged out Trump in Johnson County by literally ONE vote). Many Trump supporters, or even honest observers, couldn’t wait for Iowa to be over and done with, simply because of all the media gaslighting surrounding the chances of the non-Trump candidates. No, the polls were not going to be off by 30 points. No, Ron DeSantis was not going to carry Iowa, despite every negative indicator for his campaign. No, Democrats were not going to rescue Nikki Haley en masse. So on and so forth.
These constant media narratives were mind-numbingly stupid and were also straight-up insulting to anyone with half a brain cell. Wish-casting does not substitute for sober and objective electoral analysis. Looking ahead, only Donald Trump has a viable path out of Iowa. Despite the media putting all its chips into New Hampshire as of now, don’t be shocked if Trump romps there too, especially after this performance. As is customary, I will now break down the winners and losers from the first primary contest of the cycle.
Biggest Winner: Donald Trump
Donald Trump once again proved that he is still the king of Republican electoral politics. It took him over a year to reach this point, but he is deservedly at the peak of the Republican summit. Trump had to iron out some kinks along the way, but his campaign this time around was effective enough to pretty much end the primary last night. When commentators talk about the historic nature of his victory, they aren’t kidding. Donald Trump broke the 50% threshold in terms of caucus support, which is a modern record, and also emerged victorious by the largest margin ever, more than doubling Bob Dole’s 1996 result. Keep in mind, Trump achieved all this despite the deluge of outside spending on behalf of the other candidates, the inclement conditions, and the number of candidates on the ballot. As if this result couldn’t get any better for Trump, the 2nd place finish by DeSantis and the 3rd place finish by Haley possesses some strategic benefits for the front-runner.
DeSantis threw everything he had at Iowa, meaning only a win or even a shockingly close second would have sufficed for the Florida Governor. A distant second, on the other hand, pretty much ends Ron’s viability after last night, as he has virtually no operations in any other state. DeSantis is now a dead man walking, whether he wants to admit it or not. The real story of the night was whether Haley would completely humiliate DeSantis by stealing his thunder in a state in which she has barely contested. The former UN Ambassador and former South Carolina Governor has been surging into a solid second in most polls and is apparently within “striking distance” of the former President in New Hampshire. She needed a shock second place showing in Iowa to propel her into New Hampshire with some serious momentum. After last night, the wind is out of her sails, as she underperformed and ended up in third.
As it stands, neither DeSantis nor Haley have any momentum heading out of Iowa. Their distant second and third place finishes pretty much end any fantasies of strong showings going forward. Many Republicans, even establishment Republicans, recognize this reality and are now calling for the others to drop out and rally around the former President. If last night is any indication, they may not exit the race soon, but Donald Trump is now playing with house money. He can go into New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and even Florida with the wind at his back, ready to teach both DeSantis and Haley a very harsh lesson. I for one, cannot wait.
Winner: Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird
Attorney General Brenna Bird (R-IA) was the highest-ranking local official to endorse Donald Trump in the Hawkeye State this cycle, and she will be rewarded handsomely for her loyalty. Attorney General Bird has experienced quite the political rise since 2022, as she became the first Republican Attorney General of Iowa since 1979 and narrowly defeated then ten-term Democratic Incumbent Tom Miller, who was also the longest-serving state Attorney General in American history. Given Iowa’s strong Republican trends, she likely maintains a bright future within local politics. Plus, she is essentially guaranteed the coveted Trump endorsement for any of her future runs, as the former President will have plenty of axes to grind against many other Iowa Republicans. Look for her to mount either a very successful Gubernatorial bid or even a Senatorial bid in the near-term.
Slight Winner: Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek Ramaswamy had a bit of a hiccup on the eve of the Iowa Caucuses, as he slighted the former President and briefly drew his ire. As a result, the Ohio-based entrepreneur and political neophyte finished in a distant fourth and thus proceeded to suspend his Presidential campaign. I do think Vivek learned a harsh, but necessary lesson, as he quickly exited the race and immediately endorsed Donald Trump. This was a savvy decision, as the former President was highly complementary of Ramaswamy upon his exit, meaning fences are pretty much mended between the two. Although Vivek will have some doubters, I still think he does possess a political future, if he plays his cards right. For example, he is heading to New Hampshire to campaign with Donald Trump later today. This is a very smart move and one which will earn him goodwill with the base.
Genuine or not, Vivek did demonstrate his charisma and marketing skills on the campaign trail. It just didn’t translate into significant support. Alas, he did manage to draw serious attention to himself along the way. There is no such thing as bad publicity, after all. Regardless of this result, he has the potential to become one of Trump’s best surrogates on the campaign trail, which could earn him a cabinet post in a future Trump administration. After that, who knows? Either way, I think the future for Vivek can be bright, as long as he doesn’t step on any more rakes.
Loser: Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley had the potential to do some real damage in Iowa. Had she achieved a shock second place result, she would have gone into New Hampshire on the upswing. Instead, her narrow third place finish means that her momentum going into the Granite State becomes blunted. There were many glaring flaws that became apparent for the Haley campaign last night:
She is incredibly weak with evangelicals and self-identified conservatives
Her core enthusiasm remains low
Democrats and left-leaning Independents aren’t going to come out for her in significant numbers
While a second place finish didn’t materialize for Haley, she still marches onto her next two targets: New Hampshire and South Carolina. She even went as far as proclaiming that this was now a “two person race.” I guess finishing third entitles you to a head-to-head match-up with the front-runner.
Putting her delusions aside, one of her strengths in New Hampshire is that she polls well with self-described “moderates,” which are abundant in the Granite State. Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH) has also endorsed her candidacy, giving her a much needed boost. While New Hampshire is a tricky and difficult to predict state, a lot needs to fall her way in order to manifest a shock upset over Donald Trump. Part of that plan was finishing second in Iowa, cannibalizing the Chris Christie vote, and hoping enough Democrats and liberal Independents spoil the primary on her behalf. So far, that plan isn’t coming to fruition. Another issue for Haley is that Vivek just dropped out and endorsed Trump, as well, meaning his non-insignificant vote share would likely boost the former President.
Even though New Hampshire is her make or break state, her final stand is in her home state of South Carolina. She served at the Palmetto State’s Governor between 2011 and 2017, leaving her second term early to become UN Ambassador. While Haley does have a built-in advantage for second place, she is already massively trailing Trump in her home state. Losing one’s home state in a primary is political suicide. Keep in mind, she hasn’t served in local government for over 7 years, nor has she faced the South Carolina electorate within a 10-year span. Memories fade fast in politics and a decade is akin to an eternity.
Regardless, Haley tried to tip the scales against Trump once before in South Carolina. Back in 2016, almost the entire South Carolina Republican establishment went all in on Senator Marco Rubio’s (R-FL) campaign. The result was an embarrassment for Haley and the rest of the South Carolina Cabal, as Trump romped to a solid victory, picking up every delegate and carrying all but 2 counties. Keep in mind, this is when Haley was at the height of her political influence as a sitting Governor. How much of her local influence remains almost a decade later? Probably not much. Either way, the Haley Hail Mary is off to a rocky start. I guess she can logically justify staying in a little longer, but we likely know how this movie ends for the former UN Ambassador. (Hint: not well)
Loser: Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (and the rest of the Iowa GOP Establishment)
Governor Kim Reynolds probably ended her political career after last night. She went all in on the DeSantis candidacy and she now leaves empty-handed. Both she and the Florida Governor walked very similar paths in recent years. Both won narrow Gubernatorial victories in 2018. Both needed the Trump endorsement to save their sorry asses. Both romped their respective re-elections in 2022. And finally, both are now in the political wilderness. Funny how that works.
This result was richly deserved, if you ask me, as the Iowa Governor had behaved in an underhanded and disloyal fashion for most of the cycle. For starters, she boldly proclaimed that she promised the former President that she would remain neutral during the caucuses. She then started to publicly embrace DeSantis and eventually got real chummy with him, although still not giving out an endorsement. Finally, she put a ring on it and formally endorsed the Florida Governor, after many months of public footsie. Political suicide complete. Throughout this whole process, both DeSantis and Reynolds saw their respective approval ratings fall off a cliff. DeSantis is now treading water in Florida, while Reynolds has become one of the most unpopular Governors in the nation. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
What’s interesting about Iowa is that it does not enforce term limits for its Governors, meaning, Reynolds faces two options: either voluntarily step down after two terms or face the wrath of a brutal and unforgiving primary, during which Trump is guaranteed to endorse someone else. Honestly, she’ll probably take the two terms and run, but she could have stuck around much longer had she not acted like a complete snake.
The political fallout doesn’t just stop at Governor Reynolds, either. There are many prominent Iowa Republicans that leave last night with their reputations in tatters. Evangelical “leader” Bob Vander Plaats hitched his wagon to the DeSantis campaign months ago. He had a knack of picking the eventual winner for the last three open caucuses: Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012, and Ted Cruz in 2016. His endorsement became so coveted that he became known as the “Iowa kingmaker” during this period. Many wish-casters thought that Vander Plaats and his machine would deliver a big result for DeSantis, given his supposed pull with evangelicals. Alas, Vander Plaats also leaves humiliated after last night, as his hand-picked candidate got crushed by a 30 point margin. It’s now clear that he got lucky on three separate occasions and that he was no kingmaker.
On a similar note, influential Iowa radio personality Steve Deace also went all in on DeSantis prior to the caucus. Deace maintained a history of anti-Trump comments spanning all the way back to 2016. Much like Vander Plaats, Deace humiliated himself by proclaiming that DeSantis was going to pull off the upset in Iowa, despite no indicator supporting his position. Deace, in essence, became a professional wish-caster. He debased himself even more on caucus night, when he had a Twitter temper tantrum, stating that the vote was rigged, because the race was called for Trump “too early.” Whether one disagrees with the timing of the call or not, no single shenanigan (or even series of shenanigans) accounts for a 30 POINT ROMP. We’ll see how Deace proceeds, but his credibility is shattered.
Finally, we reach one half of the Iowa Senate delegation: Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA). Ernst maintains one of the most liberal voting records of any Republican in the Senate and had to get bailed out by Trump and his voters back in 2020, when she struggled against her then Democratic opponent, Theresa Greenfield. She also noticeably underperformed Trump by a 2% margin and now possesses some of the worst favorables of any sitting Senator. Ernst has still not committed to supporting Trump in a general election and even shamelessly flirted with both DeSantis and Haley during the primary season. While she didn’t officially endorse anyone, she did stump for Haley on the eve of the caucus. Say what you want about Reynolds, Vander Plaats, and Deace, but at least they went on the record. Ernst, on the other hand, is a detestable coward. Just to rub salt in the wounds, she has also lobbied heavily for Haley to be a Vice Presidential pick. Oh brother! Ernst is an awful Senator and isn’t even brave enough to stake out a solid position. I hope Trump remembers her cowardice, because she richly deserves a primary challenge in 2026.
Biggest Loser: Ron DeSantis
By far, the biggest loser of the night was Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL). What is there to say about the scale of his epic Iowa flop? First off, he has pretty much exclusively camped out in the Hawkeye State for the past several months, essentially shunning his constituents back in Florida. He even did the “full Grassley,” which entailed visiting all 99 Iowa counties. He ferociously lobbied for the endorsements of prominent Iowa Republicans, going as far as paying some of them off to seal the deal. He also pulled resources from every other state to solely focus on Iowa. This dude threw everything and the kitchen sink into Iowa and only finished with a paltry 20% of the vote, 30% behind Donald Trump and only narrowly ahead of Nikki Haley. This is a fully-deserved failure of historic proportions.
Honest observers were subjected to months of gaslighting and wishful thinking about how everyone was wrong and that DeSantis had Iowa in the bag. I, for one, was thrilled to see the meltdown from DeSantis World on Twitter last night. This result was a vindication for sanity. Not one indicator was in DeSantis’ favor. NOT ONE! Even when Trump’s worst poll in Iowa had him up 7% over DeSantis, it was conducted during Trump’s weakest period. It was only going to rise from there. DeSantis seemingly couldn't do anything right in the Hawkeye State. Despite all the campaign events and infrastructure, DeSantis went on a steady decline, almost falling into third, behind Nikki Haley down the stretch.
While DeSantis didn’t suffer from a total collapse last night, it’s clear he doesn't have a viable road out of Iowa. After the result, however, the DeSantis delusion went into overdrive, as he boldly proclaimed that he “got his ticket punched out of Iowa” and that he was going to camp out in South Carolina next. Never mind the fact that he was preemptively waiving the white flag in both New Hampshire and Nevada, what does he hope to achieve with this next move? Is he magically going to connect with South Carolina evangelicals after failing to do so in Iowa? Should we just wait until Florida? Seriously, where’s the path?
Rumor had it that DeSantis’ own advisors were begging the Florida Governor to drop out and endorse Donald Trump, in an effort to salvage whatever dignity he had left. Instead, DeSantis ignored their warnings and proceeded to sink even lower than I previously thought possible. What’s crystal clear now is that the DeSantis strategy entails praying for Donald Trump to be thrown in jail and for him to be crowned at the convention. Aside from the sheer lunacy of this plan, it proves that DeSantis is nothing more than a naked political vulture. He is so clearly motivated by climbing the political ladder that he will stop at nothing to achieve his personal ambitions. One way or another, however, reality will set in. Whether he gets blown out in Florida or his campaign simply runs out of money, the DeSantis disaster will come to an end, sooner or later.
As we put Iowa behind us, the focus now shifts to New Hampshire. Is Haley capable of pulling off the upset of the cycle, or will Trump stop her dead in her tracks? Also, how will Haley perform in South Carolina? How will DeSantis perform in Florida, assuming he even gets that far? There will be plenty of wrinkles to examine over the coming weeks, but one thing remains clear: Donald Trump is well on track to be the nominee. DeSantis and Haley can only watch and pray for divine intervention.